I've been reading a bunch of "2012 Prediction" posts from people, ranging from the insipid ("We're going to see a lot of growth in e-books") to the inane ("I see a huge comeback for westerns"). So if we leave aside the obvious stuff, and throw out the silly predictions, what is likely to happen this year? Here's my best shot at making predictions for publishing in 2012…

1. The Nook is going to prove wildly popular. I have one, and I love it. The Kindle Fire has too many problems. Realistically, somebody at Google or Facebook, or maybe the Kobe people, will try to horn in on the e-reader market, so we could all be surprised by some cool new device. But Barnes & Noble's Nook is the class of the line right now.

2. And that means Barnes & Noble will figure out a way to integrate Nook purchases to brick-and-mortar stores. Let's face it: book shopping at B&N is FAR superior to meandering around Amazon. The problem has been figuring out how to monetize that for the store. I think this is the year B&N figures it out, and takes back a bigger chunk of the e-book market.

3. Additionally, that means B&N and other bookstores become game stores, puzzle centers, curriculum markets, and educational supply houses. It's already happening, and you'll see a huge shift in 2012. 

4. To keep up, Amazon will not just start their own publishing lines, but will buy some publishing houses. I figure it's inevitable. 

5. Specifically, I think Amazon starts its own CBA imprint. There's too much money in religious books to not do this. 

6. The price of e-books will go up. I've done the math, and I can't see publishers keeping a rock-bottom price on e-books. That probably means the reading culture shifts into two broad groups — amateurs and start-ups selling very cheap e-books, and traditional publishers

I've been musing on what I think will happen in publishing this year. A handful of publications have asked me for some sort of prediction (and I swear I don't have the gift of prophecy), so it's forced me to consider the future. Everything I read seems to suggest something along the lines of "e-books, e-books, and more e-books." But I think that's obvious — the equivalent of saying, "The Yankees will play a lot of baseball games this year" or "it will rain a lot in Oregon." 

Besides the advancement of e-books into our lives, what do you think will really happen this year? What trends? What changes with companies? What changes with finances? What industry changes? 

Thomas Umstattd, the CEO at Umstattd Media and Author Tech, invited me to participate in a sort of online salon, discussing the changes some of us expect to see. My first thought? I think the major publishing houses will regain control of e-books. 

More notes on "the best writing advice…"

Diana Crosby wrote to say, "At a conference, Nora Roberts said, 'Give yourself permission to write crap. You can edit crap, but you can't edit a blank page.'"

Shirley Brosius noted, "The best writing advice I received came in the form of the book HOW TO WRITE FAST WHILE WRITING WELL, by David A. Fryxell. The way I apply his teaching as a newspaper writer is to mark topics in the margins while reading over notes from an interview. At the same time I look for a theme for the piece and a catchy lead. Then I create an outline. By the time I am ready to type the piece, I know in what order I will present the material. No need to keep rereading notes. I just write until finished, then polish. It is a great time saver."

And college writing prof Philip Patterson sent this: "Write what you know. I’ve been published in Christian self-help books, journalism textbooks (8 editions), devotional books, a 365 day Bible with applications for each day, and every time I was in my comfort zone. I am out of my element in novels, for instance, and my forays into that genre have only been exercises in frustration. I still try, because I believe in stretching as a writer, but all of us have a 'sweet spot' and the unpublished author should find it and stay in it until he or she gets a name doing that and then move one to other genres."

Thanks, everyone, for participating. Happy new year!

I've had several people write to share the best writing advice they've ever received. 

Vince Zandri, who has done numerous novels and sold more than a quarter million books, wrote to me and said, "The best writing advice I ever got came from Ernest Hemingway in the form of his memoir, A Moveable Feast. If writers are worried about one thing, it's the ability to keep a story moving from day to day. To avoid the 'block,' as some people call it. Papa wrote slowly and methodically in the early morning hours, and trained himself to stop at a point where he knew what was going to happen next. That way he could be sure of getting started the next day — and it left him the afternoons to play, exercise, fish, drink, or do whatever he wanted." 

Successful nonfiction writer Mel Lawrenz wrote to say, "The best advice? Take the long view. See the long process of publishing as an advantage — the stages of writing, editing, rewriting, and revising make for a more refined end product. Don't miss the opportunity to rethink what you originally wrote." 

Harlequin author Dana Mentink sent this: "The best writing advice I got as a pre-pubbed author was that I should act like a professional. My mentor encouraged me to treat my writing like a business, not a hobby. Put in the hours, describe yourself to others as a writer, and really put yourself into the mindset of a professional. She explained to me that there's a big difference between 'I want to write a book' and 'I want to be an author.' The latter requires professional dedication." 

Children's author Kayleen Reusser noted, "Believe in yourself, even if no one else does. At my beginning I was the only one who believed I could write and get published. Even my mother told me I could not write — no money, no time, three

“Writing a first draft requires from the writer a peculiar internal state which ordinary life does not induce.”  ~Annie Dillard (The Writing Life)

Back in 2001, I attended the Blue Ridge Mountains Writers’ Conference in Ridgecrest, North Carolina. Up until that time, I’d been writing and writing and writing for years. I’d even majored in creative writing (and hated it) many years before that. At the conference, I took the Fiction 101 track, taught by author T. Davis Bunn. It was pretty early on in the first day’s workshop that I heard the piece of advice that had the most profound influence on my writing career of anything I’ve learned since: “Above all else: FINISH YOUR FIRST DRAFT.”

It seems like a pretty simple thing, doesn’t it? Almost too simple to have to be said aloud, right? But how many people out there are like I was: content to just “play” with our characters by either revising/rewriting existing stuff we’ve already written or writing scenes/vignettes that don’t necessarily tie together into a story, but that’s okay, because we’re writing and entertaining ourselves, without ever having a story that has, as Meg Cabot explains, a beginning, middle, and end.

I think this is probably a bigger trap for those of us who’re character driven than for those who’re plot driven. Those of us who start writing because we’ve fallen in love with a couple of characters really are writing to spend time with those characters. If we don’t have a clear idea of a story for them, we can write stuff about them for years without ever “finishing” anything. Take it from me and my 200,000-word unfinished opus that I spent ten years playing with.

One of the questions I’ve seen most often in the interviews I’ve been doing recently is what advice would I give to “aspiring” writers. My response is this: Just like someone cannot one day pick up a stethoscope and scalpel and “become” a doctor, one cannot just pick

“Writing a first draft requires from the writer a peculiar internal state which ordinary life does not induce.”  ~Annie Dillard (The Writing Life)

Back in 2001, I attended the Blue Ridge Mountains Writers’ Conference in Ridgecrest, North Carolina. Up until that time, I’d been writing and writing and writing for years. I’d even majored in creative writing (and hated it) many years before that. At the conference, I took the Fiction 101 track, taught by author T. Davis Bunn. It was pretty early on in the first day’s workshop that I heard the piece of advice that had the most profound influence on my writing career of anything I’ve learned since: “Above all else: FINISH YOUR FIRST DRAFT.”

It seems like a pretty simple thing, doesn’t it? Almost too simple to have to be said aloud, right? But how many people out there are like I was: content to just “play” with our characters by either revising/rewriting existing stuff we’ve already written or writing scenes/vignettes that don’t necessarily tie together into a story, but that’s okay, because we’re writing and entertaining ourselves, without ever having a story that has, as Meg Cabot explains, a beginning, middle, and end.

I think this is probably a bigger trap for those of us who’re character driven than for those who’re plot driven. Those of us who start writing because we’ve fallen in love with a couple of characters really are writing to spend time with those characters. If we don’t have a clear idea of a story for them, we can write stuff about them for years without ever “finishing” anything. Take it from me and my 200,000-word unfinished opus that I spent ten years playing with.

One of the questions I’ve seen most often in the interviews I’ve been doing recently is what advice would I give to “aspiring” writers. My response is this: Just like someone cannot one day pick up a stethoscope and scalpel and “become” a doctor, one cannot just pick

Denise wrote in to ask, "What's the best writing advice you've received? Can you sum up the big picture for us?"

I can try…in ten lessons:

1. There are very few great books, but every great book begins with a great idea.

2. A great idea does not constitute a great book. Having a great story to tell doesn't mean you're going to have a great book. It takes hard work to turn even a fabulous idea into a reasonable book.

3. Therefore, keep refining your craft. Take whatever steps you can to improve your writing. Don't settle for what you are. If you're really good, you'll get discovered. "Greatness will out," to borrow an old phrase.

4. Books aren't written, they are re-written. That means you're going to have to write, revise, review, and restructure. Don't think you can create a good book without hard work — you can't.

5. Read widely and write regularly. The two go hand in hand.

6. Establish a plan for your writing life. Have a time and a place to write. Write toward something. Establish writing goals. Few people move forward in the business side of any craft without some sort of plan.

7. Learn to listen. Get involved with other writers and learn from them. Ask editors for their opinions. Seek out a writing partner or group. Learn how to imitate great writers. Find a mentor. Shut up and listen for a change.

8. Face your fear: You're not the best writer on the planet. You're going to be rejected. Learn to appreciate others as better than yourself. Not writing because of fear is simply a way to protect yourself from potential failure. It's time to grow up.

9. Don't expect non-writers to understand. They won't. Learn to smile and nod a lot.

10. There is value in writing, not just in getting published. We learn about ourselves,

Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.
The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,
In hopes that St Nicholas soon would be there.

The children were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of sugar-plums danced in their heads.
And mamma in her ‘kerchief, and I in my cap,
Had just settled our brains for a long winter’s nap.

When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.
Away to the window I flew like a flash,
Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.

The moon on the breast of the new-fallen snow
Gave the lustre of mid-day to objects below.
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a miniature sleigh, and eight tinny reindeer.

With a little old driver, so lively and quick,
I knew in a moment it must be St Nick.
More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name!

"Now Dasher! now, Dancer! now, Prancer and Vixen!
On, Comet! On, Cupid! on, on Donner and Blitzen!
To the top of the porch! to the top of the wall!
Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all!"

As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,
When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky.
So up to the house-top the coursers they flew,
With the sleigh full of Toys, and St Nicholas too.

And then, in a twinkling, I heard on the roof
The prancing and pawing of each little hoof.
As I drew in my head, and was turning around,
Down the chimney St Nicholas came with a bound.

He was dressed all in fur, from his head to his foot,
And his clothes were all tarnished with ashes and soot.
A bundle of

Lots of stuff to catch up on:

-Today is Amanda Luedeke's birthday — happy birthday, Amanda! Here's hoping you get both birthday AND Christmas gifts this year. (Amanda is a literary agent who works with me here at MacGregor Literary.) 

-If you're interested in knowing more about marketing, Rob Eagar over at Wildfire Marketing is still offering his "Marketing Plan Templates" as well as his "Bestseller Website Tutorial" at www.StartaWildfire.com. If you type the word "Chip" in the discount code box, you'll get $5 off the retail price! (Thanks for doing that, Rob.) The materials he offers are top notch. 

-A fascinating article on the need for publishers can be read here:

www.digitalbookworld.com/2011/leaked-hachette-explains-why-publishers-are-relevant/

-And some workable ideas on how an author can increase the sales of his or her ebooks can be found on the Digital Book World site: http://tinyurl.com/78b4h4l

-Now that I'm done with my marketing series, I plan to get back to questions authors are asking. Feel free to send me your questions, and I'll get to it!

-I LOVE LOVE LOVE my Nook Tablet. Holy cow. The best e-reader I've ever had. Fast, easy to use, does a great job with the books, has a wonderful screen for movies, and isn't as clunky on the internet as the Kindle Fire. A GREAT tool. (And for those who say, "I could never get away from paper books and use a digital reader…" I can only say, "Yes, you can. Try the Nook and you'll see how.")

-And to the person who sent me Guinness glasses for Christmas: Thanks! If I knew who you were, I'd send you a note. But there was nothing in the package to say who it was from…

Merry Christmas to all!

Some people have twenty years of experience. Some people have one year of experience twenty times. The difference? The former keep track of their progress and learn from their mistakes as well as their successes. The latter keep trying something new, and have to re-learn the process every time. 

Make it easy on yourself — mark your trail. Make a point of writing down everything that works and everything that doesn't as you work through your marketing plan. That will help you focus on the good ideas and eliminate the bad ones the next time you're doing marketing for a book. Give yourself some evaluations. Figure out if you could do something better next time, or tweak an unsuccessful effort in order to make it successful. 

If you keep track of everything you do in your marketing plan, you'll discover it moves along much more quickly the next time you need to do it. So make lists of your activities. Keep track of names and emails and phone numbers. Grab contact information to the producers and hosts and editors you're in contact with. Make notes of the ideas you found helped you sell books. Send thank you's to the people who really assisted you along the way. If you don't keep track of your work, the next time you have a book releasing you'll have to do all this stuff over again. 

If possible, talk through the plan with your team — perhaps someone from your publishing house, as well as someone who helped you get the work done. Get their input into the ideas that worked best. By focusing on the best practices, you'll find yourself improving at the marketing side of the business, therefore allowing yourself more time to WRITE in the future. 

That's it — my ten steps to creating a marketing plan. I hope you've found it helpful.